New York: Europe and the Arabs
As the war in Gaza approaches its seventh month, the poverty rate in the State of Palestine continues to rise to 58.4%, with approximately 1.74 million additional people being pushed into poverty, and the gross domestic product continues to decline dramatically by 26.9%, meaning a loss of $7.1 billion from Estimated value in 2023 absent war.
These estimates were issued by the United Nations Development Program and the Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA). The report is an update to the initial rapid assessment issued by the Program and ESCWA in November 2023. According to what was stated in the United Nations daily news bulletin, a copy of which we received this morning.
The new assessment includes updated estimates of the effects of the war after six months, with projections for scenarios of the war continuing for seven, eight or nine months.
UNDP Director Achim Steiner stressed that every additional day that this war continues imposes huge and worsening costs on the residents of Gaza and all Palestinians. He said that these new numbers warn that the suffering in Gaza will not end when the war ends.
He said, "The unprecedented levels of human losses, the destruction of capital, and the sharp rise in poverty rates in such a short period of time will result in a serious development crisis that puts the future of future generations at risk."
The new assessment estimates that, for a scenario in which the war lasts for nine months, the poverty rate is estimated to more than double to 60.7%, equivalent to 2.25 times pre-war levels, bringing the number of additional people who would fall into poverty to more than 1.86%. . million, while the decline in GDP will reach 29%, with total losses amounting to $7.6 billion.
A setback in human development
The assessment also warns of a sharp decline in the Human Development Index, the summary measure of well-being issued periodically by the United Nations Development Programme, as the setback in human development in the State of Palestine may exceed two decades - below the value recorded in 2004, when the Development Index was calculated. humanity to Palestine for the first time.
The updated UNDP-ESCWA assessment complements the findings of the joint Interim Damage Assessment recently released by the World Bank and the United Nations, which indicated that direct damage to built infrastructure in Gaza as of January 2024 amounts to approximately $18.5 billion, equivalent to 97% of the gross domestic product of the State of Palestine in 2022.
As the lead agency for early recovery, UNDP cooperates closely with UN agencies and national partners to plan and prepare for the start of early recovery in Gaza and the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, without delay as circumstances permit.