Brussels: Europe and the Arabs

When Viktor Orbán lost the elections in Hungary, Brussels feared that Slovakia’s Prime Minister, Robert Fico, would be the next major obstacle to the European Union. Four months later, Fico largely capitulated, supporting sanctions against Russia and allowing Ukraine’s EU accession negotiations to proceed.

According to a report on the Brussels-based Playbook Europe, the European edition of Politico, Michal Šimčka, leader of the centrist opposition Progressive Party of Slovakia, told me in an interview at his modest Bratislava office: “Mr. Fico was hiding behind Mr. Orbán, and now he can’t do that anymore.” Progressive Party of Slovakia is leading in the polls a year before the general election, with 20%, but it may struggle to form a majority because Šimčka, a former member of the European Parliament, has ruled out working with any of Fico’s current coalition partners. According to a Politico poll, forming a coalition of only the opposition would require an enormous number of seats to achieve a majority, making its governance chaotic. Šimčka strongly criticized what he called Fico’s “hypocrisy,” saying the prime minister continues to “criticize EU sanctions against Slovakia… but at the same time supports them all” in Brussels, referring to the EU’s restrictions on Russia. Šimčka asserted that Fico has failed to achieve There are few tangible gains to speak of from his “sovereign” foreign policy, only “reputational damage” that is pushing us toward isolation.

Fico, whose office did not respond to a request for comment, has a valid reason for not pushing Brussels too hard, as billions of EU funds are at stake. In May, the European Parliament urged the Commission to activate the rule of law mechanism, which could freeze EU funds earmarked for Slovakia, citing the dismantling of anti-corruption bodies, weak anti-corruption laws, and the erosion of press freedom.

The Commission has not yet frozen any funds. A Commission spokesperson said that there are ongoing periodic assessments with the Slovak authorities regarding the protection of the EU budget. In its rule of law report, published last month, the Commission pointed to problems including weak enforcement of anti-corruption laws and threats to media independence.

One reason the Commission is avoiding angering Fico is the relative calm that has prevailed in the halls of the European Council since Orbán’s departure, at least until the next French elections. Besides the Slovak leader, populists have also sought Others, such as Andrej Babiš of the Czech Republic and Rumen Radev of Bulgaria, advocate for a more pragmatic relationship with Brussels, according to two EU diplomats who requested anonymity.

Šimčka accused Fico's government of mismanaging EU funds and changing laws to benefit its political allies, citing the dissolution of two high-profile anti-corruption bodies. (Fico and his allies defended the reforms as a response to past abuses and biases in the judicial system and attacked the scrutiny of Slovakia's spending of EU funds as politically motivated.)

However, Šimčka argued that Slovakia was still far from the situation Hungary was in before the elections, which he described as "much worse." He pointed to an effective check on power: the Constitutional Court, which he said "works," having effectively blocked the abolition of the whistleblower protection office last year and overturned key restrictions the government wanted to impose on NGOs.

Šimčka faced The same questions are being raised: Police are investigating allegations of financial irregularities at an NGO run by his mother, including a €5,000 payment to Šimicka that he says was a loan repayment but appeared in the support accounts as an expense. Šimicka has acknowledged “mismanagement at the NGO,” but insists the matter “has nothing to do with me or my party,” and that it is up to the police to determine responsibility.

The Hungarians’ strategy: Šimicka’s pre-election strategy—like Péter Magyar’s with Orbán—is to attack Fico’s economic record rather than engage in culture battles. He claims Fico left Slovakia poorer and more backward than its neighbors, with worse infrastructure than Poland or the Czech Republic. Šimicka said he has not yet contacted Magyar, but will because “it is very important that we have a channel of communication and a constructive dialogue, especially as the election approaches.”

Šimicka expects a repeat of the Hungarian election campaign, which was characterized by misinformation and personal attacks. But he believes that “Fico’s ability The scandalous incitement of hatred and fear,” including his anti-Brussels rhetoric, is beginning to lose momentum and will fail on election day, “just as it failed in the case of Viktor Orban in Hungary.”