AFP

The crisis between Algeria and Morocco over the Western Sahara file has turned into a diplomatic war of attrition whose effects have transcended the region, which raises fears of an explosion in the situation in light of the continued obstruction of the prospects for solutions, according to analysts. Morocco has been leading an intense diplomatic campaign to push new countries to support its positions, since it wrested the US administration's recognition of its sovereignty over the disputed territory at the end of 2020, in exchange for normalizing relations with Israel. The King of Morocco, Mohammed VI, had warned in August that "the Sahara file is the lens through which Morocco looks at the world, and it is the clear and simple criterion by which to measure the sincerity of friendships and the effectiveness of partnerships." And he called on countries "to clarify their positions, in a way that does not accept interpretation." On the other hand, Algeria, the great opponent of Rabat, continues to show its support for the Polisario Front. It is also taking advantage of its position as an important gas exporter, wooing Europe, which seeks to compensate for the decline in Russian gas quantities, in order to score points in its remote diplomatic dispute with Rabat, with which it severed relations in August 2021. "We are witnessing a diplomatic war, in which both sides use all means without reaching an open conflict," said Riccardo Fabiani, director of the North Africa project at the International Crisis Group.

The last episode of this diplomatic confrontation was at the end of August, when Rabat recalled its ambassador in Tunisia for consultations after President Kais Saied received Polisario leader Ibrahim Ghali on the occasion of the Japanese-African TICAD symposium in Tunis.

Morocco described this step as "unacceptable" and "unnecessarily provocative", and canceled its participation in the summit. In response, Tunisia also recalled its ambassador to Morocco.

- "Ramifications" -

Fabiani points out that the crisis between Tunisia and Morocco shows that "the conflict in the Western Sahara has begun to show its repercussions outside the framework of bilateral relations between Morocco and Algeria," explaining that "Morocco will now consider Tunisia as part of the pro-Algerian camp." The reception of Ibrahim Ghali to receive treatment for Covid-19 in a hospital in Spain in April 2021, caused a serious crisis between Madrid and Rabat, which reached its climax with the entry of more than ten thousand migrants to the Spanish enclave of Ceuta within 24 hours in May of the same year After easing restrictions on the border from the Moroccan side. The dispute did not end until Madrid announced its abandonment of its neutral position, and its support for Morocco's plan to establish autonomy in Western Sahara, the former Spanish colony in which Rabat controls about 80% of its territory. The Popular Front for the Liberation of Saguia el-Hamra and Oued Eddahab (Polisario) demands a referendum for self-determination under the auspices of the United Nations. In reaction to Madrid's change of position, Algeria froze the cooperation and partnership agreement with Spain, recalled its ambassador and indicated the possibility of raising the price of gas it sells to Spain. In November 2020, the ceasefire agreement between the Kingdom of Morocco and the Polisario signed in September 1991 was breached, after Moroccan forces were deployed in the far south of the disputed territory to expel separatists who had blocked the illegal route, as they say, towards Mauritania. The level of tension rose again in November 2021 after the bombing of commercial trucks, which resulted in the killing of three Algerians in the Western Sahara region, of which Morocco was accused.

- 'American Peace' -

For Fabiani, Trump's recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the Sahara in exchange for normalization with Israel, and Algeria's resentment "revived a conflict that had been frozen for a long time thanks to a kind of American peace." The Western Sahara is located on the Atlantic coast, with an area of ​​266,000 square kilometers and is rich in phosphates, and its coastline, extending over a thousand kilometers, is rich in fish. "Over the past decade, Morocco has strengthened its diplomatic policy, especially in Africa and towards certain countries in the European Union, while Algeria has lagged behind," explains Dalia Ghanem, of the European Union's Institute for Security Studies.

She believes that Algeria, with its gas wealth, whose importance has been increased by the conflict in Ukraine, "intends to strengthen its role in the region to become a leading country in Africa." As Anthony Dworkin of the European Council on International Relations notes, "We are witnessing a disturbing tendency to see everything in the region through the prism of Algerian-Moroccan rivalry (...) It is a sensitive and dangerous period." The UN envoy for Western Sahara, Staffan de Mistura, made a new visit to the region at the weekend, with no indication of a possible resumption of the dialogue suspended for several years. Fabiani warned that "the risk of a military conflict is low because neither side wishes it. But this danger should not be underestimated, as it is enough for any incident on the border and miscalculation" to erupt a war